Russia has sent so many troops to the Ukraine war that the country’s crime rate dropped soon after the invasion began. Image: Bloomberg
6 min read Last Updated: June 22, 2024 | 12:26 PM IST
From Bloomberg News
Russia sent so many troops to Ukraine’s war that the country’s crime rate dropped soon after the invasion began, but now their return is starting to unleash a crime wave.
Crimes committed by soldiers unrelated to the war rose by more than 20 percent last year, according to data from Russia’s Supreme Court. While the overall numbers are still small and many returning soldiers don’t commit crimes, violent crimes, theft and drug-related offenses have soared.
That figure doesn’t include crimes committed by tens of thousands of prisoners released from prison to serve in the war under a program set up by the late Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin: Prisoners who survived six months on the front received amnesty from President Vladimir Putin and were able to return to Russia as free men.
“In prison they are treated like ‘we are nobody’, and on the front line it is even worse,” said Iskender Yasaveyev, a sociologist based in Kazan. “The experiences they bring home are traumatic experiences that will stay with them for decades.”
Sociologists have long noted that crime rates often spike after military conflicts end, and researchers have looked at a host of reasons for this, from social unrest to the trauma soldiers face. Russia, whose leader Putin ordered an invasion in February 2022, sparking the biggest European conflict since World War II, is unlikely to buck the trend. The return of the prisoners who fought for Wagner offers an early sign of what awaits hundreds of thousands of men brutally treated in battle as they return to civilian life.
While petty crime has fallen, murder and sex crimes, especially crimes against children, have not declined in the past two years. According to Bloomberg calculations based on Supreme Court data, indecent assaults on minors are up 62% since the prewar period.
The return of Wagner’s enlisted men to Russia came as a shock to the inhabitants of cities and villages who found men they thought were serving long sentences living among them. Among those pardoned were some who had been convicted of murder and cannibalism.
Before he died in a plane crash last June after leading a failed revolt against the Defense Ministry leadership, Prigozhin claimed that 32,000 prisoners he had recruited had returned to Russia from the war.
Responding to widespread public unrest, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in November that criminals pardoned by Putin had “paid with blood for their wartime crimes.”
Nevertheless, a law that came into force in March quietly removed the right of amnesty after six months of military service, and enlisted criminals, like others who had been conscripted, were forced to remain in the army until the end of the war.
Yet they return, and in many cases desert: Crimes involving military personnel increased fourfold to 4,409 in 2023 compared to 2021, according to Supreme Court data.
One of the deserters, Artyom, said he fled after half his shock troops were killed during his four months in Ukraine. The 34-year-old, who asked not to give his surname, joined the army to escape harsh treatment in prison, where he was serving time for drug trafficking. He said no one told him his sentence was indefinite.
The law that abolished amnesty allows the Defense Ministry to enlist not only those convicted of crimes, but also those in pretrial detention. Prisoners’ rights group Russia Behind Bars estimates that in total, 175,000 former prisoners have been sent to war.
Alex Isakov, Russia economist at Bloomberg Economics, said the post-war crime surge could cost Russia up to 0.6% of its gross domestic product. In addition to the direct costs to lives and property, the state will likely face increased spending on welfare and security, especially the police, he said.
Bloomberg Economics’ take…
“From the Franco-Prussian War to the Global War on Terrorism, crime rates fall early in a war and rise sharply after it. Russia is unlikely to escape this pattern. Post-war crime costs may fall to 0.2 percent of GDP if the conflict ends in 2024, but could rise to 0.6 percent of GDP if it continues for another five years and some 3 million Russians are caught up in fighting. The costs of a post-war increase in crime will probably be significantly higher.”
– Alex Isakov, Bloomberg Economics Russia
The Kremlin is eager to avoid a repeat of the September 2022 conscription of 300,000 reservists, which fueled public fears of war, and is instead trying to recruit soldiers with generous benefits: Contract soldiers will be offered a monthly allowance of 204,000 rubles ($2,300) on top of a signing-on bonus that could reach up to 1 million rubles.
This has contributed to a short-term decline in crime, especially in Russia’s regions: Bloomberg Economics estimates that areas with high military enlistment saw three times as many declines in recorded crime as areas with moderate enlistment levels.
“Poverty-related economic crimes such as theft and robbery fell because the war brought funds to the poorest regions and the poorest segments of the population,” said sociologist and crime researcher Ekaterina Khodyaeva.
Russian courts handled about 62,000 fewer cases last year than in 2021, and the number of people convicted fell by 2%. The number of police officers in many regions has also fallen, suggesting there are fewer people available to solve crimes as people leave low-paying jobs for more lucrative military service.
Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev said in May that there was a shortage of 152,000 police officers across Russia, with a quarter of posts left vacant in some regions.
As more prisoners return from the war to civilian life, authorities will face even more challenges in curbing crime.
“Like other veterans, they are likely to suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder,” says Anna Kuleshova, a sociologist at the Social Foresight Group. “This, combined with their prior experience of incarceration, all of these things can combine to make it difficult for them to integrate into society.”
First Published: 22 Jun 2024 | 12:26 PM IST